Manual The 2012 Effect

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Research article 07 Aug For the first time, the direct radiative effect DRE of aerosols on solar radiation is computed over the entire Mediterranean basin, one of the most climatically sensitive world regions, using a deterministic spectral radiation transfer model RTM.


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Geoscience Communication. Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems. Geoscientific Model Development. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. The Cryosphere. He has aired no positive ads. The Wesleyan Media Project compiled the following chart to show how political advertising has become distinctly more negative over the past few election cycles:. Of course, the apparent rising volume and intensity of negative ads may reflect legal changes in how campaigns are funded in a post- Citizens United landscape.

They may have done so — we need more research on this — but they may have also produced ads that were far less effective at mobilizing or persuading voters. From a historical perspective, it is worth considering, too, that increased news media focus on negative advertising itself has helped accelerate this trend , creating a vicious cycle of attack politics driven by political consultants and journalists. With its FlackCheck. See some of the typical video techniques of political deception and misdirection:. Political scientists have long been studying the effects of negative ad campaigns on voter opinion, and many analysts focused on how campaign was affected.

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American Journal of Political Science , , Vol. What remains unknown is the extent to which a negative ad is more effective if it is sponsored by a party or an independent group instead. We conducted three experiments in which we randomly assigned participants to view a negative ad that was identical except for its sponsor. We also find that in some circumstances, a group-sponsored attack ad produces less polarization than one sponsored by a party. We conclude by discussing the implications our research has for current debates about the proper role of independent groups in electoral politics.

Political Communication , , Vol.

Furthermore, sophisticated citizens and citizens with low tolerance for negative campaigning are most responsive to fact-checks. Finally, negative fact-checks e.

Parallax Effect Charted in the 2012 Transit of Venus

Summary: This study from researchers at Arizona State University suggests that fact checking can reduce the impact of negative advertising but that men and women differ in their receptivity to fact checking. Men, in contrast, are less likely to be influenced by fact checks refuting the assertions made in a negative commercial. Research and Politics , January-March We build on this research by considering real-world campaign contexts in which candidates are working in competition with each other and have to react to the decisions of the opposing campaign.

These results are conditioned by two factors: candidates must both stay positive and out-advertise their opponent. Second, the effects of positive advertising are strongest in areas where the candidate is losing or winning by a large margin — areas where they might be tempted to not advertise at all. Most extant research has been conducted in single-country studies and has paid little or no attention to the contextual level and the conditions under which such effects are more or less likely to occur.

American Economic Association

This study tests the mobilizing effect of conflict news framing in the context of the European Parliamentary elections. Consistent with expectations, conflict framing in campaign news mobilized voters to vote. Since the effect of conflict news was moderated by evaluations of the EU polity in the general information environment, conflict framing more effectively mobilized voters in countries where the EU was evaluated more positively. July We randomly expose respondents to comparable positive or negative ads aired by Democratic or Republican candidates from the Presidential race and the Virginia Gubernatorial contest.

The experiment closely mirrors real consumption of campaign information by allowing subjects to skip ads after five seconds, re-watch and share ads with friends. Using these measures of ad-seeking behavior, we find little evidence that negativity influences self-exposure to election advertising. The results advance our understanding of selectivity, showing that party source, and not ad tone, interacts with partisanship to mediate campaign exposure.


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The findings have important implications about the role self-exposure to information plays in campaigns and elections in a post-broadcast era. Journal of Politics , , Vol. Many observers also fear that negative campaigning has unintended but detrimental effects on the political system itself. An earlier meta-analytic assessment of the relevant literature found no reliable evidence for these claims, but since then the research literature has more than doubled in size and has greatly improved in quality.

We reexamine this literature and find that the major conclusions from the earlier meta-analysis still hold. All told, the research literature does not bear out the idea that negative campaigning is an effective means of winning votes, even though it tends to be more memorable and stimulate knowledge about the campaign.

Nor is there any reliable evidence that negative campaigning depresses voter turnout, though it does slightly lower feelings of political efficacy, trust in government and possibly overall public mood. In the context of campaigns, for example, candidates continuously recalibrate their campaign strategy in response to polls and opponent actions. Traditional causal inference methods, however, assume that these dynamic decisions are made all at once, an assumption that forces a choice between omitted variable bias and post-treatment bias.

Senate and Gubernatorial elections from to It found that, in contrast to earlier research, that negative advertising could be an effective strategy for challengers, while incumbents were hurt by going negative. The Journal of Politics , April , Vol. In one media market, it took more than 4, ads to make turnout just 6. This means that to achieve a further 2.